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NBA players develop at difference paces, but the window appears to be closing faster on a certain handful of sophomores.
These Top 20 picks from the 2017 draft haven't been able to get comfortable. And though time isn't running out on all of their careers, it's becoming tougher to imagine each of them reaching the potential their teams saw before selecting them where they did.
Only Top 20 picks were considered, given the low success rates of players taken later.
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The Milwaukee Bucks had the chance to add John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby or Kyle Kuzma to their core. Instead, they opted for D.J. Wilson, who'd been quiet through most of three seasons at Michigan before a breakout NCAA tournament drew attention.
The Bucks ate the bait. Though the idea of Wilson was attractive, being a 6'10" forward with shooting touch, face-up ball skills and intriguing defensive range, he wasn't sharp enough in any one area.
Wilson hasn't come close to cracking Milwaukee's rotation since being drafted, falling even further behind this year after a hamstring injury.
Even with the Bucks picking up his option, it's difficult to picture their 2017 first-round pick making any impact in Milwaukee.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Sports Reference
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It's been downhill for Justin Patton since the 2017 draft.
He appeared in one game last year with the Minnesota Timberwolves after requiring foot surgery over the summer. Patton then needed surgery on his other foot in September, only resulting in more delayed development and doubt.
The Wolves chose not to exercise his option before trading him to the Philadelphia 76ers with Jimmy Butler. And given that he is still recovering and has four total minutes of NBA experience, the Sixers, who'll be competing for a title and already have centers, don't seem like the team to help Patton jump-start his career.
There also won't be serious demand in free agency for a true 5 with foot problems and defensive question marks.
Patton shot 15-of-50 from three last year in the G League and averaged 5.4 rebounds in 23.1 minutes.
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Following two underwhelming seasons at North Carolina, Justin Jackson broke out as a junior and wound up convincing the Sacramento Kings to grab him at No. 15. He's done little in the NBA since, despite developing for a team that's needed wings.
Valued for his shot-making out of college, where he buried 105 threes in his final season, Jackson shot 30.8 percent from deep as a rookie before starting his sophomore year 15-of-52.
His shooting hasn't carried over, a problem for a player who isn't used to create, rebound or lock up on defense. Like last season, Jackson is averaging fewer than 2.0 assists and 3.0 boards per game.
He turns 24 years old in March. Jackson needs his jumper to start falling regularly to hold any NBA value.
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Frank Ntilikina's defensive potential/versatility buy him extra time. But a lack of offensive development has derailed him from reaching No. 8 overall value and potential.
He hasn't been able to separate himself from Trey Burke or Emmanuel Mudiay, who'd both be backups practically everywhere else.
A lack of speed and explosion limit Ntilikina's playmaking and ability to work as a lead guard. He doesn't put enough pressure on the defense with his dribble. He's taken 14 free throws in 20 games, and his struggles finishing in traffic have extended into year No. 2, as he's shooting just 42.4 percent inside 10 feet.
Ntilikina hasn't progressed as a shot-creator or shooter, either, scoring just 9.4 points per 36 minutes and making 26.2 percent of his threes.
He continues to appear afraid to make mistakes, which is discouraging for a second-year player who demonstrated similarly passive tendencies as a rookie.
Ntilikina does add value defensively with his reads, recovery speed, disruptive length and switchability. But his scoring and setup game are well behind for a guard who was taken Top 10.
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Drafted at No. 4 just ahead of De'Aaron Fox, Josh Jackson has taken a step backward in season No. 2.
He's already been demoted, having fallen behind rookie Mikal Bridges in the rotation. Jackson has played just 13.1 minutes per game during November after shooting 36.7 percent and averaging 3.4 turnovers to 2.1 assists in October.
The analytics also aren't fond of Jackson, who ranks No. 428 of 430 players in real plus-minus, per ESPN.com. He has a minus-16.2 net rating, compared to Bridges' plus-4.2.
The sophomore's skill and feel for the game haven't improved. He isn't threatening enough off the dribble to use as a creator, and he's shot just 29.6 percent in catch-and-shoot situations.
Jackson possesses obvious talent, but he hasn't found a way to apply it efficiently within a team concept. And unless he fixes his shooting soon—Phoenix has yet to pick up his option—he'll fall well short of commanding typical No. 4 overall money once his rookie contract expires.
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Even at 20 years old, the cloud of doubt hovering over Markelle Fultz seemingly gets darker by the month.
This story's latest chapter features his agent/attorney pulling him from practices and games until he receives an evaluation from a shoulder specialist, per The Athletic's David Aldridge. But that turned into a wrist evaluation, per The Athletic's Shams Charania. And Fultz's teammates, including Joel Embiid, aren't sure what's going on, either, per The Athletic's Derek Bodner.
Now, it's being reported the sophomore is not in the team's long-term plans, per the Inquirer's Keith Pompey.
The lack of communication and clarity on the situation has been frustrating. But the main concern still focuses on his jump shot, a weapon he used to power him toward the top of draft boards as a freshman at Washington.
What happened to it? He's shooting 33.3 percent on pull-ups, making one per game, and he's been a non-threat off the ball, averaging 0.1 catch-and-shoot conversions.
Now well into his second season, Fultz continues to perplex with a reluctance to shoot and constantly evolving shot mechanics.
Philadelphia is also scoring 7.7 more points per 100 possessions when 2017's No. 1 pick is off the court, per Basketball Reference.
The bust clock has started ticking on the unraveling Fultz, whose ineffectiveness, inexplicable breakdown and lack of transparency have led to a shocking downfall.
