NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Grizzlies next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (35% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 9%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1%. At #5 in the conference, they are fighting with the Thunder for positioning. With a -1.5 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Trail Blazers by half a game. With a -0.73 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Grizzlies are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Grizzlies are playing 7 games, traveling 5268 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 12-7 the Grizzlies are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 8.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 7 good wins vs 3 bad losses. They have greatly exceeded their expected win percentage on the road and at home. Their 5-5 road record is +17% better than expected. Their 7-2 home record is +18% better. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-5, 58%) is better than their expected 46% win percentage. In simulations where the Grizzlies played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 45.6% of the time (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 10/22.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.3% (#17 in League). They average 103 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 104.1. On the road they average 100.5 (102.4 expected), and at home 105.8 ppg (106 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.8 true FG% (#11 in League). They allow 100.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.4. They are allowing 102.6 (108 expected) on the road, and at home 99.1 ppg (102.4 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 5.6 per game (#28 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 3.5 per game (#1 in league).
Sportsline has a free pick on the Memphis Grizzlies' next game. They are +4.5 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Grizzlies are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/1 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 29.3% on 11/22 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 19.7%. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #3 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #8 Easiest
Grizzlies' Season Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | West Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27 | 39.2 | 19.7% | 0.1% | 0% |
| Nov 22 | 40.5 | 29.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
| Difference | -1.3 | -9.6% | -- | -- |
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| Marc Gasol | 34.1 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #5) |
| Mike Conley | 34.9 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #9) |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 21.3 | 93% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #40) |
| Garrett Temple | 16.1 | 21% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #81) |
| JaMychal Green | 14.1 | 33% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #74) |
| Chandler Parsons | 12.6 | 1% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #132) |