NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 5 games is not good. They are are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 5 games. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 1-4 (42% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 5.8%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Knicks by 2 games. With a -1.02 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Cavaliers in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Cavaliers. There is only a -0.34 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Bulls are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bulls are playing 7 games, traveling 2767 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #22 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Even at 5-16 the Bulls are just slightly behind their money line projected win total of 6 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have won 22% of their road games and were expected to win 21%. At home they have a 25% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 33%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 55.3% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Bulls played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 24.2% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #25 in the league back on 10/12.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.7% (#26 in League). They average 103.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 106.3. On the road they average 101.8 (106.2 expected), and at home 104.9 ppg (106.4 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.6 true FG% (#15 in League). They allow 112.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 113.4. They are allowing 114.3 (115.9 expected) on the road, and at home 111.5 ppg (111.6 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 7.6 per game (#30 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.3 per game (#22 in league).
The Chicago Bulls' next game is on November 28. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
Before the season, the Bulls were projected to win 21.2 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 10/12 their projected win total was up to 29.2 before dropping to 16.8 on 11/19. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down to 18.9 wins.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #10 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #11 Toughest
Bulls' Season Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | East Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27 | 18.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Oct 12 | 29.2 | 3.6% | 0% | 0% |
| Difference | -10.3 | -3.6% | -- | -- |
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| Zach LaVine | 32.9 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #10) |
| Lauri Markkanen | 25.6 | 96% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #36) |
| Jabari Parker | 25.1 | 98% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #22) |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 22.8 | 94% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #37) |
| Robin Lopez | 5.8 | 8% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #39) |
| Kris Dunn | 20.8 | 84% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #46) |