There is a large 101% relative difference between conference leaders. The Toronto Raptors lead with a 39.9 percent chance of winning the East and the Milwaukee Bucks are at 19.8%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Raptors chances are down from 45.4 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Hornets average the #6 most wins and the Pistons average the #7 so the difference (-1.82 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.
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The relative percentage difference at the top of the conference is large at 94%. The Golden State Warriors lead with a 56.1 percent chance of winning the West and the Houston Rockets are at 29%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rockets chances are down from 33.5 percent. While 4.73 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #6 best record and the #7 best record is pretty large. This is a very top heavy conference with just 3 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.
All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the championship, but only 7 really do with at least a two percent chance. At #2, the Rockets have an 18 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 25 percentage points behind the Warriors. The separation between the team with the #5 highest chances vs the #7 highest is 2.7 percentage points.
| CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS | ODDS | ODDS% | SIM% | TREND |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 1/2 | 66.7% | 43.9% | DOWN |
| Houston Rockets | 10/1 | 9.1% | 18.4% | -- |
| Toronto Raptors | 7/1 | 12.5% | 17.1% | DOWN |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 14/1 | 6.7% | 5.7% | UP |
| Boston Celtics | 7/1 | 12.5% | 4.8% | DOWN |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 14/1 | 6.7% | 2.7% | DOWN |
| LA Lakers | 30/1 | 3.2% | 2.1% | DOWN |
| Indiana Pacers | 100/1 | 1.0% | 1.7% | DOWN |