SHANGHAI, CHINA - OCTOBER 08: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors defends Jimmy Butler #23 of the Minnesota Timberwolves during the game as part of 2017 NBA Global Games China on October 8, 2017 at the Mercedes-Benz Arena in Shanghai, China. (Photo by VCG via Getty Images)Getty
The Minnesota Timberwolves have finally traded Jimmy Butler. After a couple of months of an increasingly ugly internal battle, they sent Butler and Justin Patton to the Philadelphia 76ers for Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless, and a 2022 second round pick. Given the situation the Wolves were in it’s a nice return. Covington made the NBA All-Defensive First Team last season, shoots threes at a respectable clip, and is tied up on a decent value contract through 21-22. Saric is a talented young forward still on his rookie scale contract.
For Philadelphia, it’s a high reward, high-risk move. Butler is clearly a top-15 player in the NBA and a great two-way talent. But he’s also demonstrated a somewhat unique brand of leadership towards younger colleagues that appears to have led to the damaging of locker room chemistry in both Chicago and Minnesota. It's a far cry from Steph Curry's style of humble leadership that has underpinned this Warriors dynasty.
Butler’s also got a lot of miles on the clock, having played most of his career for Tom Thibodeau, a coach not known for his belief in rest. If the 76ers do sign him to the maximum five-year, $190m contract he's eligible for next summer, there’s no guarantee he’ll be good value on the back end of that deal. Still, it’s a huge talent infusion for Philadelphia who will now be in the mix in a much stronger Eastern Conference.
A potential NBA Finals matchup?
The Golden State Warriors will probably be happy to see Butler in the East. The move weakens Minnesota on paper, though the galvanizing effect of a more harmonious locker room and the addition of Covington and Saric should put them back in the playoff race. But the Warriors will now only see Butler twice during the regular season on the 31st January and 2nd March.
The move does give the 76ers a better shot at making the NBA Finals. Joel Embiid is a terror, and Ben Simmons’ creative abilities belie his inability to make a jump shot. If the three of them click, and they can find enough shooting around that trio, then they have as much top-end talent as anyone in the East.
However, they would still have a very tough path to get through. Toronto is playing as well, and as together, as any unit in the league. The addition of Kawhi Leonard, a potential MVP candidate, has gone as well as can be expected with the team gelling instantly. The Boston Celtics may be scuffling a bit now but they are still working Gordon Hayward back from injury and they have too much talent to continue to struggle. The Warriors just saw what Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like in a proper offensive system with shooters spacing the floor, and surrounded by the kind of lengthy, tough defense on the other end that causes them problems.
Perhaps the bigger impact for the Warriors is where Butler didn’t go. The Houston Rockets have had a dreadful start to the year. This was not entirely unpredicted after their signing of Carmelo Anthony. But they were widely rumored to have various offers on the table for Butler. Adding him to a lineup with Chris Paul, James Harden, Clint Capela, and potentially PJ Tucker if they’d been able to keep him out of any deal, would have caused the Warriors a ton of problems. But as of now, the Rockets seem to have taken that step back and don’t appear to have a ready answer to step forward again. Overall the field in the West may be stronger than last year, but the top-end threats seem to be in the East now.
If the 76ers do make it to an NBA Finals matchup against the Warriors, they’d still be the underdogs. It’s not immediately clear that Golden State has an answer for Embiid, but Draymond Green in the playoffs is as good a defender as the NBA has seen in recent times and we've yet to see DeMarcus Cousins in action. With Butler in the mix alongside Simmons on the perimeter and Embiid in the middle Philadelphia will possess a stingy defense. But there are three of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant to keep track of. Meanwhile, on the other end the Warriors defensive mastermind, Ron Adams, will likely find a way to exploit Simmons' lack of shooting touch. All of that, plus Golden State's experience advantage, should be enough to see the Warriors through fairly comfortably.
The impact on the 2019 free agent market
The biggest unknown, and potential impact on the Warriors dynastic ambitions, is what it means for the summer of 2019. This was supposed to be a bumper free agent class. But with Philadelphia reportedly expected to come to terms with Butler on a long-term deal next summer, and Kyrie Irving apparently staying in Boston, that’s two marquee free agents off the table. Kawhi Leonard will be the prime target for the Los Angeles teams, but he’s already hinted he’s not up for the Lakers and it’s not immediately clear why he might leave a potential Finals contender in Toronto to go to the Clippers on his own? Meanwhile, Klay Thompson is busy telling everyone who will listen that he's not interested in going anywhere other than Golden State.
There may well be a lot of NBA teams with plenty of cap space, but no-one to spend that money on. Does that increase the market for Kevin Durant? New York is the most widely rumored destination, but would he really go there on his own? The Clippers and Lakers will be desperate to sign a max free agent but does Durant want to share a spotlight with Lebron James in L.A.? It helps that the Warriors have already started their recruiting pitch, playing one of their main cards by giving Durant a tour of the Chase Center in recent days and sparking his imagination.
Beyond the obvious impact on Durant and Thompson’s free agency, there are a couple of Warriors who may be affected by a surplus of cap space next summer. One is DeMarcus Cousins. If he can come back from his achilles injury and prove he’s still even close to the beast he was before, then he’ll almost certainly be in line for a big payday somewhere.
The other is Andre Iguodala. The Warriors are on the hook for his $17m salary next year. Given how deep they will be in the luxury tax if they bring back Durant, Thompson, and some of their younger players at reasonable value contracts, that $17m could lead to a total luxury tax and salary cost of around $100m. Iguodala is a hugely valuable piece of this dynasty, but he’ll turn 36 next season and the financial temptation to move on may be too great. A surplus of cap space could make it a lot easier to dump that final year than it might have been otherwise.
Of course, a lot can change in between now and next July. But the early indications are that the Butler trade isn’t likely to significantly impede the Warriors quest for a place in the history books. Beyond that, the ripples in the 2019 free agency pond could turn into bigger waves that the Warriors will have to find a way to ride.