LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Trail Blazers are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 8/28 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 4.8% on 11/13. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.7%. They have a 41.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 94% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (55%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 52% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 15.5%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1). In simulations they make the Finals 4.4% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #3 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 45% #7 Easiest
Trail Blazers' Championship Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | West Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | 48.6 | 93.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Nov 13 | 52.4 | 99.2% | 10.4% | 4.8% |
| Difference | -3.8 | -5.3% | -6% | -3.2% |
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 12-6 the Trail Blazers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 9.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins but they also have 3 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-2 home record is +17% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 55% win percentage. The Trail Blazers are a good team (in simulations) and won 57.9% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 8/28.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.5% (#9 in League). The team shooting has declined to 54% in their last 7 games. They average 114.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.3. On the road they average 110.7 (109.9 expected), and at home 117.8 ppg (114.6 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.5 true FG% (#5 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 56.6% in their last 7 games. They allow 110.2 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.8. They are allowing 112.9 (110.9 expected) on the road, and at home 107.6 ppg (110.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +5.3 per game (#2 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.5 per game (#27 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Trail Blazers next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 3.1%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Grizzlies by half a game. With a +0.53 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Thunder by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Thunder. There is only a -0.26 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Trail Blazers are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Trail Blazers are playing 7 games, traveling 7249 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
The Portland Trail Blazers' next game is on November 23. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 42.3 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #2) |
| Jusuf Nurkic | 27.7 | 100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #10) |
| C.J. McCollum | 29.5 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #17) |
| Zach Collins | 15 | 33% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #29) |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | 19.6 | 63% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #53) |
| Maurice Harkless | 14.3 | 5% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #105) |
