LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Spurs are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/22 they had a 99.9% chance before dropping to 9.1% on 11/22. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 11.1%. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #4 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #14 Toughest
Spurs' Season Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | West Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 | 38.1 | 11.1% | 0% | 0% |
| Jun 20 | 55.8 | 99.9% | 17.5% | 12.3% |
| Difference | -17.7 | -88.8% | -17.5% | -12.3% |
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 9-10 the Spurs are behind their money line projected win total of 9.6 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins but they also have 5 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 6-3 home record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 4-8, 33%. Spurs fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #4 in the league in power ranking. In simulations where the Spurs played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.8% of the time (#19 in the league). Their peak rank was #3 in the league back on 6/20.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.7% (#19 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (109.7) than expected (108). On the road they average 113.1 (107.9 expected), and at home 105.9 ppg (108.2 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.2 true FG% (#19 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 58.8% in their last 7 games. They allow 110.2 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.9. They are allowing 115.9 (109.8 expected) on the road, and at home 103.9 ppg (105.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.2 per game (#15 in league).
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.8 per game (#10 in league).
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 5 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 5.1%. At #12 in the conference, they are behind the Mavericks by half a game. With a +0.7 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Timberwolves by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Timberwolves. There is only a -0.26 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Spurs are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Spurs are playing 8 games, traveling 7871 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
The San Antonio Spurs' next game is on November 26. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan | 39.3 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #3) |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 32.3 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #8) |
| Rudy Gay | 24.8 | 92% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #40) |
| Pau Gasol | 16.1 | 37% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #26) |
| Jakob Poeltl | 7.2 | 6% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #43) |
| Derrick White | 15.8 | 34% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #73) |
