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Pistons Mailbag - November 21, 2018
The world of analytics, the continuing saga of the Washington Wizards and how that might affect the Pistons, Luke Kennard’s status and more in a turkey-stuffed Thanksgiving edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Charles (Redford Twp., Mich.): Now that the NBA has gone analytical, do you think you could start writing about the numbers Dwane Casey would be looking at after each game?
Langlois: Casey will drop hints when he talks after a game or maybe the next day after practice as he discusses what the Pistons did well or poorly. But he doesn’t volunteer how the Pistons apply or interpret the analytical data they collect. Like most (all, really) teams, they regard that as proprietary information. The NBA updated its website several seasons ago with a host of analytical data that’s accessible to the public, but teams gather their own data that goes well beyond what is publicly available. The Pistons have a fully staffed front-office analytics department and they also hired away from the Golden State Warriors Sammy Gelfand, who serves Casey in a similar fashion to the way he aided Steve Kerr the past few years. Gelfand is assigned to the coaching staff – he sits behind the bench during games – to effectively serve as a liaison between the analytics department and the coaching staff, distilling the vast amounts of data available to Casey so it can be quickly and effectively put to use. What that is, no, they aren’t letting anyone outside their walls in on those secrets. But you can bet that when you see new lineups or altered rotations, it has pretty much everything to do with what the numbers dictate about two-, three-, four- and five-man combinations.
Dakota (Hudsonville, Mich.): Should the Pistons work out a deal for John Wall and Bradley Beal? Is it even feasible or worth giving up assets?
Langlois: Like pretty much every NBA player, there is a threshold at which acquiring that player isn’t worth the cost in assets – be that players or the allocation under the salary cap. In a vacuum, of course adding John Wall or Bradley Beal would be desirable. When you factor in the cost in assets and the chunk of cap space each would command, that’s where things get more nuanced. From the perspective of a thousand yards, it’s an easy call to say the Pistons would have interest in Beal. He’s younger, healthier, cheaper and arguably better than Wall at this point. But every team in the NBA will check in on Beal, who’s under control for two more seasons and will make about $56 million in those years. The obvious salary match is Andre Drummond. That doesn’t mean an offer has to start there, but Washington isn’t going to be interested in matching aggregate salaries for players that don’t move the needle. Any package that wouldn’t include Drummond would have to start with Luke Kennard and a No. 1 pick, but Washington would ask for more. Not having a 2018 No. 1 pick – let’s say the Pistons had a player like Miles Bridges, drafted where they would have been picking – affects their ability to put together a package competitive with what Washington figures to elicit elsewhere. If you’re getting Beal, you can afford to throw Reggie Bullock into an offer, too. Stanley Johnson is another possibility. Bullock or Johnson, Kennard, cap filler and two No. 1s? Washington would at least offer a “we’ll get back to you.”
Matt (@mdc9767): Is a potential trade for John Wall actually realistic?
Langlois: I don’t see it. Wall’s contract is a close enough match to Reggie Jackson’s – $19.2 million for Wall this season, $17 million for Jackson – that there wouldn’t be much difficulty to pass muster with cap parameters. And, logically, that would be the place to start if the Wizards are looking for a chance to restart their clock and get off of Wall’s massive contract extension. It kicks in next season and owes Wall a whopping $171 million over the next four years – an average annual value of nearly $43 million. He’s 28, so it’s not unimaginable that he’ll still be an effective player in his age 32 season of 2022-23 when his contract runs out while he’s earning – gulp! – $47.3 million. But the Pistons would be facing a massive luxury tax bill next season with Wall’s $38 million paired with Blake Griffin’s $34 million on top of Andre Drummond’s $27 million. That’s a few Franklins less than $100 million and unless the NBA goes to a Gus Macker 3-on-3 format, it’s going to be tough to cobble together a roster without paying a luxury tax bill that would make Golden State blush. All of that might be palatable if you thought you were getting prime John Wall. Maybe, maybe not. The way Washington’s season has gone certainly casts doubt about Wall’s value relative to the dollars you’d be obligated to fork over for the next four seasons. The cap is projected at $109 million and the tax line at $132 million for 2019-20, by the way, so have fun putting your team together on paper with that.
Jarrett (Los Angeles): After what happened between Kevin Durant and Draymond Green, it is a childish behavior from Green. Durant to Washington would make a lot of sense if he decides to leave next summer.
Langlois: The Wizards already are obligated to pay $111 million in salaries in 2019-20 – over the projected cap – and that’s without factoring in Dwight Howard’s player option, should he exercise it, or the cost of retaining restricted free agents Kelly Oubre or Tomas Satoransky. So if you can figure out a way for the Wizards to sign Kevin Durant as a free agent, I suggest marking an envelope with “A Plan to Deliver Kevin Durant to the Wizards.” I don’t have Ernie Grunfeld’s mailing address handy, but I guarantee that if your proposal is so addressed, it’ll find its way to the desk of the Wizards GM.
Korvus (@k0rvus): Are there any updates on Luke Kennard?
Langlois: Last week the update was that he’d shown satisfactory signs of progress and would gradually ramp up activity over the ensuing two weeks, at which time they’d re-evaluate. Anecdotally, I can tell you that Kennard over the last week looks infinitely more comfortable. The right arm that hung at his side then is now, by all appearances, symptom free as he goes through shooting drills. There’ll be a thorough evaluation conducted, though, including testing the strength in that separated right shoulder, before they’ll clear him to return to contact drills and full-blown practices. It will be four weeks on Thursday that he was injured. My guess is it will be a minimum of two more weeks before we see him back in a game.
Ken (Dharamsala, India): Last year in the two weeks before Reggie Jackson sprained his ankle, he was playing the best ball of his career. His assists were up, his defense was improved. His role had changed to being more of a facilitator and less of a playmaker/slasher. How has his play changed this year under new management?
Langlois: I don’t know if that was the best basketball of his career – he was really, really good in 2015-16 when the Pistons won 44 games and made the playoffs with Jackson averaging 18.8 points and 6.2 assists while shooting at the league average from the 3-point arc, which made his penetration threat all the more potent. But your point is well taken – he looked as if he was over the rust from a full summer’s inactivity as he recovered from the knee tendinosis that undermined his 2016-17 season. I think we’re seeing now the lingering effects of another idle summer as he was forced to let the ligaments in his right ankle injured last Dec. 26 fully heal. That’s actually the good news for the Pistons – there’s a reasonable expectation that Jackson is going to start hitting his stride as we get deeper into the season. As for how his role has changed, it’s significant. With the offense going through Blake Griffin predominantly, Jackson is adapting to playing without the ball for the first time in a very long time. Even when he was in Oklahoma City, the bulk of his minutes came without Russell Westbrook and often without Kevin Durant on the floor. Jackson has been a ball-dominant guard almost exclusively. Dwane Casey understands the transition isn’t an easy one – he went through it with Kyle Lowry in Toronto, as well – but he’s staunchly confident that if all parties come at it in good faith, and he’s not seen any indication that’s not the case, that it will be successfully navigated to the benefit of both team and individual. In keeping with that, Casey invokes a “point-five” mantra – a half-second allowed to make a decision to pass, shoot or get to the rim – that is central to the transition Jackson is undergoing. Fourteen games is too soon – how much too soon, who knows? – to come to any conclusions about the outcome. But Casey expects that Jackson will benefit once it becomes second nature by giving him the chance to attack while he’s already on the move, receiving passes from teammates instead of being required to create openings for himself.
WHOsays (@BillOffer): Is there any hope for Henry Ellenson?
Langlois: Well, of course. Ellenson is 21 and he’s as thorough a gym rat as you’ll find. I’d be surprised if in three or four seasons he’s not a solid contributor. Whether that’s here or elsewhere is anybody’s guess. But he’s got too much size, skill and passion for the game for me to accept that he’s not going to make it at some level, somewhere, somehow.
FeedKerryon (@FeedKerryon): The Timberwolves bigs seem to be pretty stacked after trading for Dario Saric. We all know Tom Thibodeau is stubborn when it comes to rotations. Would it make sense for the Pistons to call about bringing Anthony Tolliver back? Even for his age he can still shoot well.
Langlois: You raise a solid point with regard to the imbalance in Minnesota’s roster created by the Jimmy Butler trade. The Timberwolves are a little heavy on big men and a little short on wings after shedding Butler and adding Dario Saric and Robert Covington. Covington can flip to power forward pretty seamlessly in today’s game and with Saric, Taj Gibson, Gorgui Dieng and Karl-Anthony Towns are fighting for minutes Tolliver, it appears, is getting squeezed. The Pistons have an apparent surplus of wings with Reggie Bullock, Glenn Robinson III, Stanley Johnson, Luke Kennard and Langston Galloway all rotation options plus rookies Khyri Thomas and Bruce Brown in the wings and Zach Lofton behind them on a two-way contract. But there’s a reason Ed Stefanski doubled up in the draft on Thomas and Brown – he saw the need to prepare for the possible loss of at least one of Bullock or Johnson to free agency next July. I don’t know that there’s an obvious match, but there are certainly enough possibilities to make a deal work if it comes to that. Tolliver remains an ultra-reliable player who’ll stay in his lane and knock down 40 percent of his 3-point shots. I’m pretty sure it will be pretty easy for the Timberwolves to move him to bolster their perimeter.
Gavin (Grand Rapids, Mich.): Zach Lofton looked really good in Summer League and in preseason. With a near triple-double in Grand Rapids as well as solid play at any level, do you think he will get a shot in the NBA anytime soon?
Langlois: Barring injury or a trade that creates a need, it would be a little surprising to see Lofton used for more than a spot appearance or two under the limits of the two-way contract, which allow for a player to spend 45 days with the parent NBA team during the course of the G League calendar. But the Pistons signed him to such a deal for a reason – they see in him a potential NBA player. Next season would seem a more likely window of opportunity for him, but much depends on how he plays in Grand Rapids and how the situation sorts itself out at his position for the Pistons.