LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Pacers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.1% chance of winning it all. On 10/24 they had a 3.3% chance before dropping to 1.2% on 11/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 1.7%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 1.9%. They have a 9.7% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (30%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 44% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 18.6%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1). In simulations they make the Finals 7.5% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #7 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #8 Easiest
Pacers' Championship Forecast Changes
Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | East Champ | NBA Champ |
---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 26 | 46 | 97.6% | 7.5% | 1.6% |
Oct 24 | 50.1 | 99.9% | 10.8% | 3.3% |
Difference | -4.1 | -2.3% | -3.3% | -1.7% |
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 11-8 the Pacers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 10.8 wins. They have 5 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 56% of their road games and were expected to win 53%. At home they have a 60% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 60%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Pacers are a good team (in simulations) and won 56.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #7 winning 59.3%.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.9% (#13 in League). They average 105.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.5. On the road they average 107 (107.4 expected), and at home 104.3 ppg (107.6 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.7 true FG% (#14 in League). They allow 102.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.3. They are allowing 108 (106.4 expected) on the road, and at home 98.2 ppg (104.2 expected).
REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.1 per game (#14 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.7 per game (#8 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 5 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 8%. At #5 in the conference, they are fighting with the Pistons for positioning. With a +0.65 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Celtics by 1.5 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Celtics. There is only a 0.47 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pacers are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pacers are playing 8 games, traveling 13386 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
According to Sportsline the Indiana Pacers are +5 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
---|---|---|
Victor Oladipo | 34.8 | 100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #16) |
Myles Turner | 22.2 | 94% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #20) |
Domantas Sabonis | 20.9 | 95% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #36) |
Thaddeus Young | 20.4 | 64% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #52) |
Darren Collison | 22.2 | 62% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #56) |
Bojan Bogdanovic | 19.7 | 70% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #48) |