The 2018-19 NBA season has been off to an entertaining start, and now that we're one quarter of the way in, it's time to take stock of the league and see where things are heading. SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has run the simulations and crunched the numbers to give us some updated projections on where teams will finish this season.
Here's a look at the odds for every team to make the playoffs, win their conference and win the title.
Western Conference
A few takeaways from these projections:
- The drama surrounding the Warriors has settled down a bit, and they've gotten back on track with two wins in a row. That's helped them get back into a virtual tie for first place in the West, and has also helped their title odds jump back over 45 percent in the SportsLine projections -- an increase of nearly 10 percent from last week.
- James Harden and Co. appeared to be turning things around but have lost their last two games, including a shocking loss to the Cavs. Still, the SportsLine projections see them as the second-best team in the West. Their win total projection is at 52, and they have a greater than 15 percent chance of winning it all -- third only behind the Warriors and Raptors.
- Despite dealing Jimmy Butler, and currently sitting at 9-11, just one spot out of the bottom in the Western Conference, the projections still see a lot of hope for the Timberwolves. The current projections give them better than a 60 percent chance to make the playoffs. That bottom of the Western Conference playoff picture is going to be a mess, so perhaps the Wolves will jump up and claim a spot.
- Marc Gasol and Mike Conley have led the Memphis Grizzlies to a 12-7 start, which has them in fourth place in the West. However, the SportsLine data doesn't see that continuing. In fact, the projections don't even see them getting to 40 wins, and has their playoff chances at a measly 18 percent.
Eastern Conference
A few takeaways from these projections:
- The Raptors are becoming bigger and bigger favorites to win the East. SportsLine's projections have them up to nearly 39 percent after their league-best 17-4 start. Additionally, they also now have a 17.4 percent chance to win the title. With Kawhi Leonard playing at an MVP-candidate level, the Raptors' move to trade for him has paid off so far.
- The projections finally believe in the Bucks. Prior to the season, SportsLine's projections saw them as a 43.5 win team, with just a 1.4 percent chance to win the East. Now, thanks to their 14-5 start, their win projection has shot up to over 52, while their chances to win the conference have jumped to 15.8 percent.
- Boston has started out slow this season, losing four of its last five games to fall to 10-10. But perhaps because of just how much talent they have on the roster, the SportsLine projections still believe in the Celtics. Their win total projection is still up over 50, and they still have the second-best chance to win the East at 22 percent.
- Are the Magic for real? Prior to the season, the SportsLine projections had them as the second-worst team in the East, and expected them to win just 27 games. Now, the most recent data gives them greater than 57 percent chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012.