NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Bucks next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 12.7%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Raptors by 2.5 games. With a -1.65 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the 76ers by one game. With a -0.63 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Bucks are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bucks are playing 6 games, traveling 4662 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 14-6 the Bucks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 13.1 wins. They have 5 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 4 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 51%. At home they have a 83% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 75%. Over the past 3 weeks they have not played as well going 6-5, 55%. We have simulated the Bucks playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 60.1% of the time (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 7/20.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.6% (#2 in League). They average 121 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 116. On the road they average 117.8 (115.2 expected), and at home 123.2 ppg (116.5 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.6 true FG% (#3 in League). They allow 110 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.9. They are allowing 113.1 (114.7 expected) on the road, and at home 107.8 ppg (108.4 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +7.7 per game (#1 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.1 per game (#26 in league).
The Milwaukee Bucks' next game is on November 28. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Bucks are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/3 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 5.6% on 11/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 3.9%. They have an 81.8% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (91%). They have a 69% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 36.1% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 25% chance of winning the East (3/1) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 16% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 45% #1 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 56% #3 Toughest
Bucks' Championship Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | East Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27 | 52.2 | 100% | 16% | 3.9% |
| Nov 23 | 54.3 | 100% | 20% | 5.6% |
| Difference | -2.1 | -- | -4% | -1.7% |
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 47.2 | 100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #3) |
| Khris Middleton | 30.1 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #11) |
| Eric Bledsoe | 31.4 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #15) |
| Brook Lopez | 21.4 | 82% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #24) |
| Thon Maker | 6.6 | 5% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #44) |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 22.1 | 82% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #49) |