Monday, November 26, 2018

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview, and Odds









A pair of Western Conference teams looking to climb the standings take the floor in the Mile High City. The Los Angeles Lakers head east as they battle the Denver Nuggets Tuesday night. Los Angeles comes in off a 108-104 home loss to the Magic Sunday afternoon. Denver turned back Oklahoma City 105-98 on the road in their last contest Saturday night. The Lakers lead the all-time regular season series 105-68 and have taken the last two meetings. That includes a 121-114 home win in the first matchup this season on October 25.



Los Angeles Lakers Try to Bounce Back on the Road


Los Angeles had won seven of their last eight games entering Sunday’s home game with the Magic. The Lakers likely are glad to be done with Orlando as they lost both games of the season series: in fact, the Magic handed them their only two losses in the last nine games. Los Angeles led by 10 after the opening quarter only to see the lead sliced to one at the half. The Lakers were then dusted 35-19 in the third quarter: they rallied to tie the game with 2:24 to play but went scoreless the rest of the way to end up on the short end of the stick. Los Angeles shot 46.8 percent from the field in the game and went 10 of 26 from beyond the arc. The Lakers were hurt by a 20 of 31 showing at the charity stripe and 18 turnovers. LeBron James led Los Angeles with 24 points and seven assists in the loss. Los Angeles is 4-5 ATS on the road this season while the under is 5-4 in those games.




The Lakers are 7th in the league in scoring offense as they put up 114.2 points per game. Los Angeles is 12th in rebounding with 46.2 boards per contest and 12th in assists with 24.1 per game. The Lakers stand 22nd in the league in scoring defense as they allow 112.7 points per night. LeBron James leads Los Angeles with 28.3 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.9 assists per contest. Kyle Kuzma kicks in 16.4 points per game while Brandon Ingram chips in 15.8 points a night. JaVale McGee (13.2 points, 6.5 boards, 2.79 blocks), Josh Hart (9.5 points) and Rajon Rondo (8.5 points, 6.5 assists) are all solid contributors as well. Lonzo Ball, Lance Stephenson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tyson Chandler, Michael Beasley and Sviatoslav Mykhailuk are key pieces in the rotation for coach Luke Walton. Rondo had surgery for a fractured hand and is out until late December. The Lakers are tied for 5th in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 47.8 percent as a team. Los Angeles is 17th in the league with 10.6 triples per game while standing 10th in three point shooting at 36 percent from downtown.



Denver Nuggets Seek Fourth Straight Win


Denver strung together a third straight win as they went on the road and took down a division rival in Oklahoma City. The Nuggets shoot to make it four straight wins as they return home for this contest. Denver jumped all over Oklahoma City early, running to a 10 point edge after the opening quarter and extended the advantage to 21 at the half before holding off the Thunder’s second half rally. The Nuggets shot 41.1 percent from the field and hit 10 of 30 three point attempts while holding Oklahoma City to 35.9 percent shooting. Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 22 points in the win. Denver is 7-4 ATS at home this season while the under is 6-5 in their games.




The Nuggets are 16th in the league in scoring offense with an average of 109.9 points per game. Denver is currently 9th in the league in rebounding with 46.9 rebounds per contest. The Nuggets are 4th in the league by dishing out 26.4 assists per game. Denver is 3rd in scoring defense as they allow 103.2 points per contest. Paul Millsap puts up 12.9 points plus 6.7 rebounds a game in his second season with Denver. Will Barton contributes 16.5 points a night while Nikola Jokic kicks in 16.6 points, 9.9 rebounds and 7.2 assists a game. Gary Harris (16.8 points) and Jamal Murray (team high 17.4 points) each are solid contributors offensively as well. Mason Plumlee, Monte Morris, Malik Beasley, Torrey Craig, Juancho Hernangomez and Trey Lyles (11 points) have to step up when called upon. The Nuggets are tied for 9th in the league in field goal percentage by shooting 46.5 percent from the field. Denver is 20th in the league by sinking 10.3 threes per game and is 23rd in the league in three point shooting by sinking 34 percent from beyond the arc. Barton is out until early December after having surgery for a right hip injury and a core strain. In addition, Isaiah Thomas is out indefinitely as he recovers from hip surgery.






The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.




Full-Game Side Bet

Rating:


Denver has been playing extremely tough defense and they have the length, not to mention depth, to make life difficult for opposing teams. The Nuggets also have the one thing that most teams lack and that’s a center who can effectively dish the ball. Jokic is the wild card as he can shoot the three, put the ball on the floor, set up a teammate, crash the glass and knock down buckets. He’s Kevin Durant if Durant was a center basically. The Lakers have LeBron but their surrounding pieces are still finding their way. Playing in the Mile High City is tough for opposing teams and it’s similar here: the Nuggets get the nod here.



Prediction: Denver Nuggets -4




Full-Game Total Pick

Rating:


Denver is one of the toughest places in the league to play, regardless of how good you are or what kind of momentum you have coming in. The Nuggets are deep, they’re tough and they’re relentless. The thin air just makes it that much tougher to contend with all of that. Los Angeles has played well with wins in seven of their last nine but they face a similar problem here that they did with Orlando. The Magic has a dynamic big man in Nikola Vucevic: the Nuggets have Jokic, who probably eclipses Vucevic in most things. Can the Lakers learn from their problems against Orlando to get a win here?


The under is 4-0 in the Lakers’ last 4 overall, 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games following an ATS loss, 5-1-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Western Conference foes and 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver has seen the under go 4-0 in their last four overall, 6-1 in their last seven at home against teams with a winning road record and 6-1-1 in their last eight against Western Conference foes. Denver plays tough defense and both teams have been under machines lately, so look for this one to follow suit.


Prediction: Under 215









Chris Kubala


Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.