The Warriors have played 21 games, a little more than a quarter of the way through the 2018-2019 NBA season, and they sit in first place in the Western Conference standings, as was expected.
But the way the Warriors have arrived at this point has been anything but expected.
Here’s what we learned about the Dubs through the first quarter of the season.
1. Absence makes the heart grow fonder — and makes the Warriors a pedestrian team
When you have two of the greatest players to ever step on an NBA court, there is always going to be a debate over who is the more important player. Stephen Curry’s resume is unassailable, but Kevin Durant’s playoff performances have been central to the Warriors’ back-to-back titles.
But the answer couldn’t be clearer now: this is Curry’s team, through and through.
Twenty one games into the 2018-19 season, two facts about the Warriors are unassailable: Stephen Curry is this team’s most valuable player — and is playing at a level that could make him the NBA’s MVP — and without him in the lineup, this team is middle-of-the-pack at best.
The Warriors have won back-to-back games sans-Curry, but their four-game losing streak without him (and Draymond Green, which is important, but not germane to this cherry-picked argument) showed just how important he is to making the Warriors the vanguard team of the pace-and-space revolution.
Without Curry, the Warriors often resort a throwback game on offense — slow pace and plenty of post-ups and mid-range jumpers.
It’s a style that the Warriors helped run out off the league, and it looks equal parts antiquated and lackluster.
And while I always enjoy a good counterculture move, this move isn’t that.
No, this is a team missing its talisman.
Curry put up absurd numbers in his first 12 games of the season, averaging 29.5 points, five rebounds, and six assists per game, while shooting 51 percent from the field and — get this — 49 percent from beyond the arc on an audacious, outrageous, and preposterous 10 3-point attempts per game.
Those are MVP numbers, if extrapolated out over a full season. (Easier said than done, of course.)
And he’s providing MVP impact to a team that is considered to be the class of the league — so long as he’s in the lineup.
For a great player — a transcendent force — Curry is often forgotten amid the ever-running conversation of greatness.
This season is standing is a statement: Curry’s prodigious impact cannot be overlooked or understated any longer.
2. Kevin Durant’s looming free agency Is no longer a side topic
This was likely always going to be the case — when you have a player of Durant’s caliber playing “will he or won’t he” heading into a season, you’re likely going to be a thing.
But Durant’s looming free agency — he’s almost certain to opt-out of his contract at the end of the year — was likely to be a back-of-the-mind nuisance; always there, but never at the forefront.
But after he and Draymond Green got into it on the bench in the Warriors’ overtime loss to the Los Angeles Clippers — Green told Durant that the Warriors didn’t need him and he should just do what he wants to do and leave (it netted Green a one-game suspension) — there’s now no chance of this being a low-grade hum.
Any interaction between the Warriors and Durant — every quote, every pass, every playcall, every substitution — is now going to be heavily scrutinized now that Green touched what was the third rail of the Warriors’ season.
What does it all mean for Durant? Has Green chased him out of town?
Beats me.
I can tell you this, though: there won’t be a day between now and July where Durant’s free agency won’t be discussed.
3. Draymond Green will probably define this season (and next)
Not only because of his actions at the Staples Center, but also because of his nagging injuries.
Last year, Green was a mummy after practices and games — wrapped on the shoulders, back, knees.
Remember how nasty his fluid-filled elbow was? That was the least of his worries last year.
This year looks like its heading the same way.
Green plays too hard to expect him to not get banged up a bit over the course of the season — there’s no restrictor plate on this stock car — but back-to-back injury-riddled seasons don’t bode well for his own free agency in 2020.
Beyond that, while the Warriors are at another level talent-wise, the absence of Green in recent games has been glaring on the defensive side of the court — you don’t realize how many things he cleans up until you start seeing the mess.
The Warriors need Green healthy and in the lineup (making some 3 pointers wouldn’t hurt, either) and they need him to patch things up — in a real way — with Durant.
If he can’t do those things, there’s a non-zero chance he’s not on this team at the start of next season.
4. This team lacking reliable depth
In past years, the Warriors could rely on Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala, and David West to provide rock-solid minutes off the bench.
But West has retired, Iguodala and Livingston’s best days are behind them, and first-round pick Jacob Evans’ best days are in front of him, so at the wing position and in the backcourt, the Warriors are relying on a bunch of guys with recent G-League experience — Alfonzo McKinnie, Damion Lee, and Quinn Cook.
Don’t get me wrong: those guys have been good – McKinnie, who made the team off a Training Camp tryout, has been a revelation — but the situation is obviously not ideal for the Dubs.
Luckily this team has Jonas Jerebko — he’s been outstanding for the Warriors this year.
Still, the depth on this team leaves something to be desired. The numbers aren’t as strong as in years past.
That said, this team’s five best players are out-of-this world, so that depth issue shouldn’t matter much.
5. There’s little clarity on the center position
Kevon Looney has been steady and dependable, if unspectacular. Jordan Bell is energetic and enigmatic.
But the team’s starting center, Damian Jones, hasn’t done anything to challenge a less-than-100 percent Cousins for the starting center job in 2019.
The Warriors have liked a lot of what they’ve seen from DJ, but the inconsistency and at times passive play has left the center position in a state of flux.
6. When this team is in top form, no one in the Western Conference can touch them
The Rockets and Jazz? They’re not the same teams they were last year (and that’s not a good thing.)
The Grizzlies? I like ‘em, but they’re not a threat.
Same goes for the Nuggets and Blazers.
The Pelicans are fun, but the Warriors would run them off the court in a seven-game series.
And the Lakers? Don’t jest. That team isn’t competing for a title this year.
The Warriors have clear sailing in the wholly mediocre West this season — don’t expect that to change over the course of the winter.
7. But in the East?
There might be legitimate concern for the Warriors out there.
The Raptors look like the real deal (we’ll find out how real in the coming weeks) and the Bucks absolutely dominated a full-strength Warriors team at Oracle Arena.
They’re worthy adversaries, and the 76ers and Celtics might join their ranks in the coming weeks, as well.
But those are June problems for the Dubs.
