SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 10-10 the Kings are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 6 wins. They have greatly exceeded their expected win percentage on the road and at home. Their 5-6 road record is +20% better than expected. Their 5-4 home record is +22% better. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 4-7 which is still more than the what was expected (3.3 wins). In the pre-season, the Kings were expected to be a below average team (#27) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. In simulations where the Kings played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 10/28.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 56% (#14 in League). They average 114.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 109.3. On the road they average 118.9 (108.3 expected), and at home 108.3 ppg (110.5 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.6 true FG% (#22 in League). They allow 116.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 116. They are allowing 121.5 (116.5 expected) on the road, and at home 110.8 ppg (115.4 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3.7 per game (#24 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.9 per game (#6 in league).
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NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Kings next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (40% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 6.2%. At #9 in the conference, they are fighting with the Spurs for positioning. With a -0.47 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Mavericks in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Mavericks. There is only a 0.2 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Kings are just the 29th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Kings are playing 6 games, traveling 12824 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
The Sacramento Kings' next game is on November 29. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Kings are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/13 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 18.2% on 11/23 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 9.5%. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #10 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #5 Toughest
Kings' Season Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | West Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27 | 37.5 | 9.5% | 0% | 0% |
| Nov 23 | 39.2 | 18.2% | 0.1% | 0% |
| Difference | -1.7 | -8.7% | -- | -- |
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 33.3 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #11) |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | 23 | 97% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #16) |
| Kosta Koufos | 14.6 | 1% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #48) |
| Buddy Hield | 24 | 97% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #31) |
| Marvin Bagley III | 20.6 | 94% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #38) |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 20.4 | 62% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #58) |
