The biggest story from Tuesday night in the NBA was surely the compelling comeback the Washington Wizards put together against the LA Clippers. Down 73-54 at the half, John Wall & Co. mounted an impressive second-half rally, outscoring the Clips by 26 in the half.
Lost in the tumult in the capital city this season has been the fact Wall has been quite productive statistically, at least individually -- he's producing his best shooting rate from the field since 2016-17, enjoying career highs in steals, blocks and 3-point volume. Dimes are down for Wall, however, and drama is up, thus it's tougher to appreciate the premise that he is 15th overall on ESPN's fantasy hoops Player Rater, a standard deviation model which objectively frames player value across the key statistics we covet for fantasy purposes.
It's also worth noting the Clippers, who were on a "SEGABABA," as NBA nerds call it, or the second game of a back-to-back, as normal people might describe it, appeared gassed in the second half last night. Which is to say, the drama has escalated to the point in Washington where it's unlikely that a single rousing win is a salve to the team's issues.
As ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski recently reported, the situation has become dire enough for the front office to market much of the roster in trade talks. Now for the actionable fantasy angle -- ESPN's Zach Lowe deftly added context to the team's cap situation, making it quite difficult and even unlikely the Wizards can move Wall until at least next season, given "complexities surrounding his 15 percent trade kicker -- believed to be the first trade kicker that would be spread over the length of a supermax contract."
As a fantasy manager, you should get as excited as NBA general managers might be when reading that Woj article rife with palace intrigue and fractured roster dynamics. Which is to say, there can be value in the chaos, especially when players like Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. and Wall likely have deflated fantasy value, given the uncertainty of this scenario and the underwhelming play on the court thus far.
Wall won't be leaving any time soon is my impression from reading Lowe's in-depth analysis. Which means he also might be the last man standing if the team does break up this struggling trio of stars. I'm willing to try to get Wall at say 80 cents on the dollar, and similar bids should be made for Beal. Porter is likely quite cheap in fantasy deals and would likely surge in usage and other opportunity rates if dealt in real terms. Don't let the drama in D.C. throw you off this roster. Rather, let's try to leverage it to our advantage.
With an eye on meaningful fantasy performances and relevant statistical trends, let's delve into the night that was in the NBA.
Tuesday recap
Highlights
Tim Hardaway Jr., New York Knicks: 32 points (10-21 FG), 5 rebounds, 4 assists
John Wall, Washington Wizards: 30 points (9-24 FG), 4 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 1 TO
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat: 21 points (9-21 FG), 23 rebounds, 2 blocks, 3 TO
Lowlights
Danilo Gallinari, LA Clippers: 3 points (0-8 FG), 5 rebounds, 5 assists
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors: 9 points (3-9 FG), 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 TO
James Johnson, Miami Heat: 4 points (1-7 FG), 3 rebounds, 4 assists
Tuesday takeaways
After a somewhat slow start to the season, Miami's Whiteside is now 19th on the Player Rater overall. Last night, Whiteside produced his 10th 20/20 game of his career, second most in Heat history. If there is any reality to Whiteside's stock proving artificially low in your fantasy league, it could be a good time to pursue the block and swat force before such performances begin to mount. Whiteside is, after all, just barely behind Andre Drummond with a whopping 22.8 rebounding chances per game (within 3.5 feet of an available rebound).
Speaking of underrated values, I'm almost certain the fantasy market isn't fully aware of how well Brooklyn's D'Angelo Russell has played of late, especially for fantasy purposes. For context, he's 16th overall on the Player Rater. No really -- Russell is producing second-round value through more than 20 percent of the campaign. Last night, Russell tallied a strong floor game with nine boards and six dimes while netting 20 points for the third straight game, tied for the second-longest such scoring stretch of his career. Up to 39.5 percent from deep on 6.5 attempts beyond the arc per game, Russell has taken off as a scorer since Caris LeVert went down with an injury. During his past five starts, Russell is averaging 18.8 shots per game to go with a rich blend of 3-pointers, assists, and steals.
Speaking of big-city scoring mavens, the Knicks' Tim Hardaway Jr. delivered his third-straight 30-point game last night, the longest such streak of career. THJ now has six 30-point showings this season after having seven in his career entering the season. I do not own a horn, so tooting it would be hypothetical, so instead I'll just link to my deep sleepers piece from before the season where I lauded Hardaway's ability to become an impressive scoring maven.
Injuries of note
Victor Oladipo (knee) is listed as questionable for tonight's tilt with the Hornets. If he can't go, Tyreke Evans becomes a viable DFS play and a strong starter in redraft formats.
Toronto's Kawhi Leonard has yet to play in a back-to-back scenario this season and thus is listed as doubtful ahead of tonight's trip to Atlanta. With the Raptors likely confident they can take care of the Hawks sans their superstar wing, we likely won't see Leonard in action.
Analytics advantage for Wednesday
All but four teams are in action tonight, meaning you will almost surely have to make some difficult lineup decisions for Wednesday's massive slate. I like to turn to opportunity rates as a quick differentiation tool when deciding between several players for just one or two utility spots, for instance.
Touches, potential assists, and rebounding chances are two simple, yet encompassing, statistics we can turn to for demarcation when trying to maximize lineup decisions. Using the NBA's rich database of tracking data -- the league has high-speed cameras affixed to the catwalks of all NBA arenas that track player movement and specific basketball-centric data many times per second -- we can learn about which players are earning meaningful chances to produce the numbers we're chasing.
Check the links to the stats in the previous paragraph and begin to sort by team and recent production (the past five games, for example). You'll find information that is truly actionable, such as who is touching the ball, distributing the ball or rebounding the ball at strong advanced rates, for fantasy decisions.
Top players to watch tonight
One of the NBA's all-time duos-turned-rivals-reunite as Russell Westbrook and the Thunder visit Kevin Durant and the Warriors (10:30 ET on ESPN). This is the eighth head-to-head meeting between the two players, with Durant holding a 5-2 edge (won each of the past two).
One star that will not be on the court is Stephen Curry. Without him, Golden State has struggled, going 2-4, averaging 17.6 fewer points per game. The Warriors have the second-worst shot quality in the NBA since Curry went out with an injury.
Pivoting to the personal rivalry that will drive likely turn Twitter into a meme party tonight, Durant has averaged 32.7 PPG while Westbrook averaged 31.6 PPG in direct matchups. The only other duo to average 30 PPG head-to-head is Elgin Baylor and Oscar Robertson (minimum 5 games). Baylor and Robertson met 70 times, per Elias.
These two don't face off that often when on the court. Per Second Spectrum, Westbrook has 35 possessions when guarded by Durant in the halfcourt. But the Thunder's offensive efficiency rises to 134.3 when he does.
So who defends the two stars? Again per Second Spectrum, Klay Thompson has 195 matchups against Westbrook in the halfcourt since 2016-17. That's more than twice as many as any other Warriors player. George has gotten the assignment to guard Durant, matching up with him 157 times over the same span, most by any Thunder player.
It will be riveting to see how the team and personal narratives play out on the court tonight. We can be thankful for such a compelling matchup.