The Sacramento Kings are off to a bizarrely good start this season. With a couple of so-so prospects and role players, the Kings looked destined for the bottom five of the standings, as usual. But Dave Joerger’s team is 10-10 and in the thick of the jumbled West playoff race.
Why are they outperforming expectations? Thank the sudden breakout of second-year point guard De’Aaron Fox.
The 2017 No. 5 pick had a miserable rookie season, thanks to poor shooting and klutzy use of his own speed and athleticism. The term “raw” is thrown around for too many prospects, but Fox was raw. He looked like a boom-or-bust pick with all the tools, but a poor feel for the game.
How bad was Rookie Fox?
- By win share numbers, which are meant to estimate how much a player directly contributes to team success, Fox totaled the 8th-worst mark (-.014 per 48 minutes) of any rookie to play 2,000 or more minutes. That means his presence directly caused losses, putting him in an infamous club that includes Adam Morrison and Emmanuel Mudiay, two highly touted players that struggled as rookies and eventually turned into busts.
- His true shooting percentage, which weights three-point shots, two-point shots, and free throws more appropriately, was the 89th-worst of all time (47.8 percent) among rookies who’ve registered 2,000 minutes. The only active players to shoot worse in their rookie seasons were Trey Burke, Brandon Ingram, Dennis Smith Jr., Elfrid Payton and Mudiay.
- Fox shot poorly from three (30.7 percent). League average was 36.2 percent.
- Fox got to the line just 195 times in 2,026 minutes (73 games). For a slashing playmaker, that’s especially low.
It was far too soon to give up on Fox, of course. Point guards have it the roughest trying to adjust from collegiate play to the NBA, with the ball in their hands so often and challenging playmaking responsibilities thrust on them.
But few could’ve predicted his jump would come this suddenly.
Fox has upped his averages to 18 points, eight assists, and four rebounds per night early in his second season. His jerky motions have purpose, his speed is producing extra buckets, his spring is jolting him towards the rim, and he’s seeing the floor like a top-tier guard. For the first time, Lakers fans are second-guessing their team’s decision to draft Lonzo Ball over him at No. 2.
Consider all the ways Fox has improved.
- His win shares per 48 is up to .090, which is nearly league average. His defense is still holding him back from a higher mark, but on offense, he’s directly responsible for the Kings’ winning ways.
- Fox’s true shooting percentage has risen eight points.
- He’s improved his shooting from 30.7 percent from deep to 38.1 percent, and is shooting an extra shot from distance per game.
- In just 651 minutes, he’s taken 116 free throws, just 79 fewer than he took in almost four times the minutes last season.
- His assist percentage, which estimates the percentage of the Kings’ assists that belong to him while he’s on the floor, is up 7.3 percent from last season. He’s No. 8 in the league in potential assists — passes that lead to scoring opportunities — with 14 per night. That’s more than LeBron James, Kemba Waker, and Trae Young.
Fox ranks No. 13 in average speed on offense at 5.01 miles per hour among players who average at least 20 minutes per game. He’s really freakin’ fast, and he’s learning how to use that skill.
He’s tied at No. 19 in the league on free throw attempts on drives to the rim at 1.8, which is slightly above Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, and Victor Oladipo.
De’Aaron Fox is becoming a star in this league, and Kings fans finally have some optimism.
Speaking of young point guards...
Donovan Mitchell is having that sophomore slump
Fox’s draft classmate, Mitchell, surprised everyone by emerging as the featured scorer for a Utah Jazz team that surged into the second round of the playoffs last season.
This season, however, has been a different story. Mitchell’s regressed, and so have the 9-11 Jazz.
Though Mitchell averaging about the same amount of points as he did a year ago (20.6), it’s taking him an extra shot per game to get there. He’s shooting just 29 percent from deep, which is five percentage points worse than his rookie year, and his two-point shooting is down 1.2 percent as well.
Mitchell is taking responsibility for a bigger load of the offense this season despite shooting less efficiently. His usage rate is up from 28% as a rookie to 29% this season. (That means he uses 29% of Utah’s possessions while on the court.) But his scoring efficiency has dropped from 1.08 points per possession used to 1.02. That may seem slight, but if Mitchell uses 25 possessions in a game, that’s 1.5 points — a not insignificant change in Utah’s output.
Mitchell vowed to boost his paltry assist numbers this season, telling Yahoo’s Chris Haynes: “I gotta get my assists numbers up, for sure. I’m a much better passer than what I showed last year. Watching games, and watching film, if I slowed down, opportunities would have presented itself a lot more.”
Disappointingly, he hasn’t lived up to his promise. Mitchell’s merely matching last year’s 3.7 per game average so far, and his potential assists have dropped from 6.8 to 6.5 per night. He’s played two games without a single assist, and three games with only one.
As the primary offensive option, Mitchell must continue improving for Utah to thrive. For now, both he and the hipster Western Conference contender aren’t living up to expectations.