LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Clippers are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/13 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 84.5% on 11/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 74.3%. They have a shot (25%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 24% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 5.4%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #3 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #12 Toughest
Clippers' Season Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | West Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27 | 44.9 | 74.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nov 18 | 46.9 | 84.5% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Difference | -2 | -10.2% | -2.6% | -0.9% |
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 13-6 the Clippers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 9.6 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 8-1 home record is +35% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-2 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 5.4 wins. In the pre-season, the Clippers were expected to be a below average team (#25) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Clippers should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 7/13.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.5% (#4 in League). They average 116.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.7. On the road they average 116.6 (113 expected), and at home 117.1 ppg (112.4 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.1 true FG% (#2 in League). They allow 112.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.6. They are allowing 115.3 (114.2 expected) on the road, and at home 109.3 ppg (110.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.2 per game (#13 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 1.6.
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.7 per game (#23 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 0.1.
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 5 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 16.3%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 2.5%. With a -1.12 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Clippers are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Clippers are playing 8 games, traveling 10121 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
The LA Clippers' next game is on November 28. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris | 30.9 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #8) |
| Montrezl Harrell | 26.5 | 95% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #18) |
| Danilo Gallinari | 26.3 | 97% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #28) |
| Louis Williams | 29.1 | 97% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #30) |
| Marcin Gortat | 13.7 | 29% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #32) |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 21.2 | 72% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #53) |