SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 7-14 the Knicks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 6.5 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have won 33% of their road games and were expected to win 26%. At home they have a 33% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 38%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-8, 33%) is better than their expected 30% win percentage. In simulations where the Knicks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40% of the time (#26 in the league). Their peak rank was #19 in the league back on 11/10.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.5% (#28 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (108.6) than expected (106.1). On the road they average 108.8 (105.6 expected), and at home 108.3 ppg (106.9 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57 true FG% (#24 in League). They allow 113.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.2. They are allowing 115.4 (113.5 expected) on the road, and at home 111 ppg (110.6 expected).
REBOUNDING (AVERAGE): On the boards they are totally average with a 0 rebounding differential (#15 in league).
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.4 per game (#13 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -1.
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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 5 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (38% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 7.2%. At #12 in the conference, they are behind the Heat by one game. With a -0.59 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Bulls by 2 games. With a +1.02 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Knicks are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Knicks are playing 7 games, traveling 2178 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
Sportsline has a free pick on the New York Knicks' next game. They are +7 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Knicks were projected to win 32.6 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 10/16 their projected win total was 26.4 before increasing to 39.2 on 11/5. Their current projected win total is 32.1. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were projected for 28.4 wins. The playoffs are not likely with their 3.4% chance and a projected #12 finish in the conference.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #10 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #12 Toughest
Knicks' Season Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | East Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27 | 32.1 | 3.4% | 0% | 0% |
| Nov 5 | 39.2 | 50.4% | 0.4% | 0% |
| Difference | -7.1 | -47% | -0.4% | -- |
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| Enes Kanter | 26.7 | 99% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #13) |
| Tim Hardaway | 27.5 | 99% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #22) |
| Mitchell Robinson | 11.8 | 33% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #29) |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 30.4 | 90% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #42) |
| Noah Vonleh | 18.9 | 78% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #45) |
| Emmanuel Mudiay | 18.9 | 40% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #69) |