SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 10-7 the Pistons are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 8.7 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 4-4 road record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-3, 67%) is better than their expected 52% win percentage. The Pistons should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.5% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 10/29.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.6% (#27 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (111.6) than expected (108.7). On the road they average 112.2 (107.4 expected), and at home 111.1 ppg (109.8 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.5 true FG% (#21 in League). They allow 110.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.3. They are allowing 111 (110.5 expected) on the road, and at home 110.8 ppg (106.4 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.2 per game (#9 in league).
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.6 per game (#11 in league).
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NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Pistons next 6 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 8.5%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.2%. At #5 in the conference, they are behind the Pacers by half a game. With a -0.21 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Celtics by one game. With a +0.92 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Pistons are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pistons are playing 8 games, traveling 3406 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
Sportsline has a free pick on the Detroit Pistons' next game. They are -7 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Pistons are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.6% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 11/7 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 3% on 11/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.7%. They have a 6.2% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #5 in the conference and have a 94% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (15%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 27% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 8.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.5% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #10 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 41% #2 Easiest
Pistons' Season Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | East Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27 | 44.5 | 94.1% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Nov 21 | 44.5 | 91.6% | 3% | 0.5% |
| Difference | 0 | +2.5% | -0.3% | -- |
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| Andre Drummond | 36.4 | 100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #4) |
| Blake Griffin | 38.7 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #4) |
| Reggie Jackson | 25.4 | 90% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #42) |
| Zaza Pachulia | 11.3 | 1% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #46) |
| Ish Smith | 20.1 | 24% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #82) |
| Reggie Bullock | 15.8 | 18% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #85) |