SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 12-7 the Thunder are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 11 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 5 good wins but they also have 5 bad losses. They have won 56% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 70% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 66%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-3, 73%) is better than their expected 63% win percentage. The Thunder are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.1% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 6/22.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 52.9% (#30 in League). They average 110.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.9. On the road they average 108.2 (110.7 expected), and at home 113.3 ppg (113 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.4 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 105.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.4. They are allowing 104.8 (111.2 expected) on the road, and at home 106.1 ppg (107.7 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.5 per game (#4 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 3.3 per game (#2 in league).
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NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 4 games is generally good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 3-1 (42% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 20.7%. At #4 in the conference, they are behind the Nuggets by half a game. With a +0.81 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Grizzlies in the conference. With a +1.04 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Thunder are the 14th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Thunder are playing 6 games, traveling 5050 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
The Oklahoma City Thunder's next game is on November 28. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Thunder are contenders to win the conference and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had under a 1% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 6/22 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 3.6% on 11/9. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.9%. They have a 31.5% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 86% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (43%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 40% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 9.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 9.1% chance of winning the West (10/1) and a 4.8% chance of winning it all (20/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.7% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #3 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #12 Easiest
Thunder's Season Forecast Changes
| Date | Projected Wins | Playoff% | West Champ | NBA Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | 46.8 | 86.4% | 2% | 0.7% |
| Nov 9 | 49.5 | 97.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Difference | -2.7 | -11.5% | -1.6% | -0.9% |
FANTASY PROFILE
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
| Rest of Season Leaders | FP Per Game | Own % and Value |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | 51.7 | 100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #19) |
| Paul George | 36.3 | 100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #6) |
| Steven Adams | 25.1 | 99% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #15) |
| Nerlens Noel | 9.7 | 18% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #36) |
| Dennis Schroder | 21 | 96% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #35) |
| Jerami Grant | 15.1 | 52% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #64) |